Turning the Tide: Denmark‘s EU Council Presidency and the Future of European Climate Leadership   

The preceding Polish council presidency focused largely on security issues—some of which were energy-related—as well as on the financial aspects of Europe’s transition. As Wojciech Szymalski from the Institute for Sustainable Development Foundation remarked, significant progress on climate issues, such as ETS 2, just transition, and most importantly, the 2040 EU Climate Targets, were set on the agenda but left unfinished despite active civil society engagement. 

The Danish government, however, has vowed to be a strong advocate for climate policy ambition by achieving several significant milestones. Bertel Dons Christensen and Asser Rasmussen Berling, Heads of Department at the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities, underlined Denmark’s dedication to climate leadership. They highlighted their commitment to delivering a strong 2040 climate target and an ambitious European Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in preparation for COP30 in Brazil.  

Long overdue: The 2040 EU Climate Targets 

Many expectations for the upcoming presidency term laid on the result of the 2040 climate target. The first proposal was brought forward by the Commission on 2 July, just after the start of the Danish council presidency. It was originally mandated by the European Climate Law to be set in June of 2024. The proposal for the 2040 target now lays at -90% GHG reduction relative to 1990. Romain Didi from CAN Europe explained that although ambitious, this target contains several flexibilities. Among them are the use of international carbon credits, the increased role of carbon removals and cross-sectoral flexibility for achieving the 2040 target. While civil society warned of diluting ambitions, the Danish Presidency emphasised its commitment to strong and consistent targets. After discussion and adoption of the European Commission’s proposal in both Council and Parliament, the Council aims to finalise the NDC by September 2025, in time for COP30. Furthermore, department head Dons Christensen promised an extraordinary council meeting to ensure effective negotiations and a timely qualified major voting decision on the 2040 targets. 

Hope for strong priorities 

Danish civil society expressed its hopes for an impactful term ahead. Sigrid Bjerre Andersen from Global Focus welcomed Denmark’s overall strategy around international law, human rights and global climate justice. She called for adequate involvement of civil society to enable public participation on upcoming negations like the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).  

The EU’s budget, called MFF, for 2028 to 2034, will be determined soon with a Commission proposal expected in July 2025. There is a great deal of pressure surrounding the outcome of these negotiations due to investment needs not only around competitiveness but particularly around the achievement of the EU’s climate targets. Rasmus Bjerring Larsen (Nordic Center for Sustainable Finance, ActionAid Denmark) explained that ~€500 billion per year will be needed to meet 2030 climate targets. This investment gap is projected to grow to ~€750 billion per year with a 2040 target of -90% GHG reduction. There are several anticipated changes in the budget’s structure, like simplification and flexibilisation of different budgets as well as a performance-based spending approach, the details of which are still unclear. Although Denmark is expected to act more flexible on issues like defense and competitiveness budget, advocacy in favour of new EU spending resources or expansion of common debt for specific climate spending lines was deemed unlikely. 

“You can get a lot of climate action with 160 billion euros.”

Nicolai Bech Kofoed, Senior Analyst EU, CONCITO

Overall, civil society expresses an optimistic outlook on on Denmark’s potential role as a bridge builder and honest broker in EU energy policy. Considering the bloc’s split position over the role of nuclear energy, Denmark is likely to avoid direct confrontation and instead shift focus to common ground. As Nicolai Bech Kofoed from CONCITO highlighted, electrification could be the unifying factor providing significant progress towards decarbonisation. Universally recognized benefits of electrification and expansion of renewable energy include a solid base of green jobs, increasing energy security and lowering costs by cutting fossil fuel imports. These currently amount to ~€300 billion per year. Through Danish support for electrification and potential savings by cutting fossil fuel imports of up to ~€160 billion per year, Bech Kofoed argues the EU has the opportunity to make significant progress on power infrastructure and clean tech deployment while supporting the implementation of ETS2.